Wisconsin families are paying an estimated $1,095more because of tariffs imposed in 2025, and the state’s manufacturing sector has lost an estimated 6,055 jobs, according to a new six-state analysis.
That number is actually lower than the regional average, but it still adds up to another bill families are paying, not through the mail, but through grocery aisles, car lots, and supply chains.
That is really the core warning in the report. Wisconsin was less exposed than a lot of its neighboring states, but its manufacturing base and its export-heavy food industry still left workers and businesses vulnerable to pricier imported inputs and retaliation from other countries.
Wisconsin paid less
The Midwest Economic Policy Institute and the University of Illinois Project for Middle Class Renewal estimated that new 2025 tariffs cost the typical Midwest household $2,044. The national estimate was $1,320, while Wisconsin’s was $1,095. Once you factor in that were already in place before that, the average household burden in Wisconsin actually climbed to $1,511.
The analysis modeled a roughly 10 percent effective tariff rate and assumed 90 percent of the cost was passed to U.S. buyers. That number lines up closely with research from the New York Fed, which found that the United States absorbed 94 percent of tariff incidence during the first eight months of 2025, easing to 86 percent by November.
In other words, importers paid the tax first, but families ended up feeling it later, at checkout.
Factory losses cut deeper
Wisconsin’s relative advantage in household costs did not carry over to factory employment. The report attributes roughly two-thirds of the estimated losses to higher input costs after accounting for protection from imports, with the remaining third linked to foreign retaliation. Altogether, the report puts a total impact of 6,055 manufacturing jobs.
“Instead of bringing manufacturing roaring back, tariffs have reduced factory employment by thousands of jobs,” economist Frank Manzo said. The report also points out that food manufacturing, which is Wisconsin’s largest manufacturing subsector, depends heavily on overseas markets for processed foods, corn, and soy products.
Lower-income families felt more
Tariffs did not hit every household the same way. Wisconsin families in the bottom 10 percent paid an estimated $348, equal to 2.4 percent of income, while the top 10 percent paid $1,623, but only 0.8 percent.
So while wealthier households technically paid more overall, the actual squeeze was much harder on families who were already spending most of their money on necessities, with little room left to cut back.
Small businesses faced a similar problem. The report cites research estimating that Wisconsin small-business importers paid an average of $272,000 more because of the new tariffs, prompting some firms to raise prices, pause hiring, or delay expansion.
The legal route changed
The Supreme Court ruled on February 20, 2026, that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not actually give the administration authority to impose the tariffs being challenged in court.
In response, the administration ended those specific tariffs, then introduced a temporary 10 percent import surcharge under a different law, and later ordered 10 percent or 12.5 percent Section 301 tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners over forced-labor import policies.
So the courtroom decision did not end the tariff debate. It just changed the legal mechanism behind it, and Wisconsin households and manufacturers are still dealing with shifting rates and exceptions.
What comes next
The report’s authors are pushing for Congress to take back a bigger role in trade policy, and they are proposing refund checks for consumers of at least $750 for single filers and $1,500 for married couples.
They are also calling for stronger unemployment benefits, rapid retraining, and state clawbacks of tax incentives from companies that lay off workers.
The report was published on the Illinois Economic Policy Institute website.
