Rice is the kind of staple you toss in the cart until the price jumps. In Iran, it is a daily essential, and according to a recent statement from Dr. Lerpong Saryeed, it is also a reminder that geopolitics can reach all the way to the dinner table.
Saryeed said Iran needs to import about 3.3 million tons of rice each year and once bought close to 770,000 tons annually from Thailand.
If trade barriers ease, that demand could surge again, but it would land in a world where climate promises and maritime security now sit in the same spreadsheet.
A market shaped by sanctions
In his post, Saryeed argues the biggest bottleneck is not taste or price, but payments, with U.S. sanctions affecting Iran’s ability to settle transactions through normal channels. He also notes Thai rice is still sold in Iran, just in more limited quantities than before.
On paper, food is not supposed to be the target. U.S. Treasury guidance says transactions for the sale of food and agricultural commodities to Iran are broadly allowed, and sales of food by non-U.S. persons are generally not sanctionable unless they involve designated parties.
Still, “allowed” does not always mean “easy.” In practice, exporters and banks can face delays and extra compliance checks, and Indian rice exporters have publicly described payment settlement problems when shipping to Iran. That gray zone is where trade slows.
Shipping lanes and security risks
Even if money moves, cargo still has to move. Reuters reported in March that freight and insurance costs for rice shipments jumped as maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly halted, with some cargoes headed for Iran halted in transit and one exporter warning that “freight rates are rising every day.”
This matters beyond rice, because the same chokepoints carry critical farm inputs. The UN Development Programme chief told Reuters that disruptions in fuel and fertilizer supplies linked to blocked cargo through Hormuz were already lowering agricultural productivity, a warning that tends to show up months later as tighter harvests.
For Thai exporters, the stakes are real money. Thailand’s Department of Foreign Trade said the country exported 8.7 million tons of rice in 2025, so any big swing in Middle East demand or shipping costs can ripple quickly through prices paid to farmers, and eventually, shoppers–not small numbers.
Rice and the methane problem
Here is the climate catch that often gets left out of trade debates: the FAO says rice paddies account for roughly 8% to 12% of global man-made methane emissions, and many countries still rely on inventory methods with limited detail and high uncertainty.
Flooded fields create low oxygen conditions that let methane-producing microbes thrive, which is why the issue is not just tractor fuel or shipping emissions.
FAO analysis also notes rice paddies are a meaningful slice of global methane, a gas that traps heat far more strongly than carbon dioxide over the short term. Flooding is convenient, but it is not climate friendly.
Iran’s water stress adds another layer that is hard to ignore. In 2025, Iran’s president warned the country was nearing a severe water crisis, and Reuters noted agriculture uses around 80% of Iran’s water, a tough backdrop for expanding water-hungry crops like rice.
Tech that can lower emissions
The good news is that rice is not locked into high emissions forever. “Alternate wetting and drying” is a water management approach promoted by the International Rice Research Institute that can cut irrigation water use by about 30% and reduce methane emissions by about 30% to 70% without a yield penalty in many cases.
Peer-reviewed evidence backs up the direction of travel. A global meta analysis found that, compared with conventional flooding, this approach has reduced methane emissions by about 37% to 77% while saving about 19% to 30% of irrigation water across studies. Less standing water, less methane.
Now comes the tech and business question. How do you prove a shipment is “low methane” without better measurement, especially as climate reporting expectations rise under initiatives like the Global Methane Pledge?
That is why the FAO and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition launched a rice methane monitoring initiative, explicitly calling out today’s uncertainty gap.
What to watch next
If sanctions are eased, or if payment channels widen in a way banks are willing to use, Iran could again become a major customer for Thai rice, at least in volume terms. But trade will likely remain shaped by compliance rules and shipping risk, not just harvest size and consumer preference.
For consumers, the signals tend to arrive late, usually as a higher grocery receipt rather than a headline. For policymakers and exporters, the bigger question is whether a rebound in trade also comes with wider use of proven water-saving practices, or whether methane stays an invisible side effect.
At the end of the day, this is a reminder that food security, national security, and climate policy are increasingly tangled together in everyday staples.
The press release was published on Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
